Possible Today Through Thursday
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area for a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Today and Thursday. See the images below:
The weather pattern over the next few days will feature an upper level southwest flow, while at the surface, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will extend from low pressure over the Central High Plains, northeast to near Lake Superior. Also, a warm front stretching east across our area will help to focus new thunderstorm development later today and tonight. That stationary front to the west will eventually begin drifting southeast on Thursday...likely moving south of Wisconsin by Friday night. Until the front exits, we will see highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Toss in a brisk low level jet that will converge this warm moist air along the frontal boundaries and we have perfect conditions for repetitive rounds of thunderstorms for southern Wisconsin.
We'll continue to keep an eye on any potential flooding problems as we see things evolve. Here is the day 1 - 2 precipitation forecast from the HPC. Storms had been focused north of Madison and Milwaukee last night and this morning. The current thinking is that redevelopment this afternoon may occur south of Milwaukee and Madison...maybe across Iowa and Illinois. We'll have to watch how things evolve today. Clearing and the resultant heating/instability will be the key factors.
The primary threat will be large hail and damaging straight line winds. In addition, heavy rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. Stay tuned for later updates to the forecast.